Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
